Thank you, Mr. Chair and members of the committee.

Thank you for your invitation to participate in this study. I'm appearing today as an individual, but for context, I've been a faculty member in the centre for fisheries ecosystems research at the marine institute of Memorial University since 2011, having worked previously as a research scientist with Fisheries and Oceans Canada.

I've been studying cod in one capacity or another for more than two decades now, and it has been the focus of my university research program, where I've been looking at abundance, behaviour and life history to better understand and predict recovery dynamics in a changing ecosystem.

Today, I'd like to share my perspective on the announcement in June by the Minister of Fisheries and Oceans and the Canadian Coast Guard to end the northern cod moratorium and re-establish a commercial fishery, which in 2024 would include a 46% increase in allowable catch to about 19,000 tonnes, as well as expanding access. Based on my experience, this would appear to be a risky strategy that potentially stands to jeopardize the current status of this iconic stock.

The reasoning for this is as follows.

First, although the stock has shown improvement and is now deemed to be in the cautious zone since 2016, it's not by any definition fully rebuilt or recovered and remains well below historical norms. To put it in perspective, in 1968, more than than 800,000 tonnes of northern cod was landed. That's more than double the 2024 spawning stock biomass estimate of about 342,000 tonnes.

Second, stock growth has also largely stalled since 2016, with short-term prospects appearing limited. Even in the absence of fishing, in 2027 the probability of stock decline from 2023 levels is 62%, with the probability of being in the critical zone at 42%. Increased levels of fishing stand to increase risk to the stock, leaving little to no scope for growth.

Third, in addition to increased total allowable catch, the 2024 management plan provided an allocation for domestic and foreign offshore fleets. Northern cod is a migratory species that disperses throughout inshore regions in pursuit of capelin, their preferred prey, in summer, and becomes highly aggregated in offshore regions in winter as they prepare to spawn.

Some of the highest catch rates ever achieved in this fishery were accomplished by offshore draggers fishing on these dense overwintering and spawning aggregations. Some of my early research on cod described complex reproductive behaviour, with fishing on spawning aggregations demonstrated to disrupt shoals, potentially leading to reduced spawning success.

To safeguard cod during the spawning season, the 2024 plan reportedly includes a fishing closure spanning April 15 to June 30, but because of uncertainties regarding where and when cod spawn, it's really unclear whether or not this offers adequate protection.

Moving forward, what I'd like to see is priority research to address some key science gaps, including around the timing and location of spawning. I'd be especially keen to see updated data for the region off Labrador. We know that cod have returned here in recent years, and this area may be especially important to stock production.

I'd also call for further evaluation of the northern cod assessment model, including the accuracy of the catch bounds that are being used. NCAM, as it's known, is an impressive model that uses data from many sources. It was updated in October 2023, but questions remain about how it partitions mortality between fishing and other natural causes. This might not sound like a big deal, but it's really key to our understanding of cod population dynamics and our ability to make accurate projections as well as sound management decisions.

I'd also like to see increased engagement for resource conservation. Following the cod collapse, there was a recognized need for a more comprehensive approach to fisheries science and management, which, among other things, led to the formation of the Fisheries Resource Conservation Council, or FRCC.

The FRCC brought together stakeholders to provide a forum for transparent communication and participation in decisions about resource conservation and scientific priorities, but unfortunately was disbanded in 2011. Given ongoing issues in the industry and new challenges presented by climate change, the need for an all-hands-on-deck approach has never been greater, and measures should be taken to foster improved engagement and communication.

Some questions that merit discussion, for instance, might include these. What should a reopened commercial northern cod fishery look like in 2024? Who should have access? What types of gear should be used? How do we balance potentially conflicting objectives? During the pandemic, there was a lot of talk about building back better. Given that we've waited 32 years for a renewed cod fishery, shouldn't the same logic apply here?

Finally, I'd like to call for increased government transparency and evidence-based decision-making. Northern cod stock growth has been stalled since 2016, and the assessment model suggests biomass declines may be anticipated even in the absence of a fishery. Management actions in this situation should promote stock growth.

What, then, was the basis for an expanded fishery in 2024, given that it potentially stands to compromise cod stock status? The fishery in Canada is a common property resource to be managed for the benefit of all Canadians. In the case of northern cod, it would appear we deserve some answers.

Thank you.