Thank you very much for this privilege of being able to share some thoughts about what is becoming, in my view, one of the critical existential threats that Canada faces to its security. What I want to talk about in my five minutes is the increasing threat of the geopolitics to Canadian security writ large, but also Canadian security in the Arctic.

Let me begin by saying that I am seeing now a developing...what I would call the ordinance syndrome, whereby we are trying to diminish the Russian threat. I would take very strong opposition to it.

The geopolitical threat is based on three elements.

The first one is intent. We have a country, Russia, that is intent on being an expansionary power, and we see this from its treatment of Chechens, Georgians, and Ukrainians in 2014. I don't think we should underestimate what that means for Canadian security.

The second part of the geopolitical threat—and this is the one that is probably not getting the attention it deserves—is the weapon technology. The critical point of why this is a threat to Canada is that the Russians, since Putin took power in 1999, have embarked upon a policy of developing a range of not only offensive, conventionally powered weapon systems, but also nuclear-powered weapon systems. What makes it an Arctic threat is the geography of Russia. Many of these weapon systems, both in terms of their surveillance communications but also the means of delivery, are based in the north. Therefore, we are faced with a growing geopolitical threat that is focused on tactical nuclear weapons, something that Canada has not fully addressed at this point in time.

We also have to be aware that the Americans have become aware of this growing threat, as evidenced both by a series of strategies that they began to develop by 2016-17 and by a redevelopment of some of their key delivery systems. As a result, we are entering into a new and much more dangerous international era. I suspect that we are going to be seeing, not necessarily the breakdown of nuclear deterrence, but an increasing viability of the possibility of nuclear war fighting, because of these new weapon systems and the intent that is now developing between these two states.

Canada is at risk, for two core reasons.

First and foremost, Canada is, of course, a member of the alliance system that is arrayed against the Russian aggression. This includes both NORAD and NATO. Even if somehow we could geographically isolate ourselves from the result of any form of conflict, be it low probability but still there, any type of conflict would automatically involve us.

However, the real danger to the Canadian Arctic is that, from a defensive position, there are several scenarios we might want to explore. Of course, a limited first strike against North American bases may in fact be the route that the Russians decide to go, in essence trying to blind the Americans by a strike on Thule, and possibly Anchorage, as a means of facilitating a limited nuclear intervention in Europe.

Once again, I want to stress that this is a low probability, but we start seeing the variables coming together. That means that the probability, unfortunately, in my estimation, has increased. As a result, the biggest danger is that Canada has to ensure it is doing its part to allow for protection.

The defence against such a Russian intervention—and possibly even in the longer term, China, and we can talk about that in detail—is twofold.

First of all, we have to demonstrate to the Russians that the defence of North America is seamless, in terms of both the surveillance capability and its delivery capability. This is basically enforcing what General VanHerck, the head of NORTHCOM and NORAD, referred to as extended deterrence.

Second of all, we need to convince the Russians that our commitment is as strong as the Americans' in the defence of the North American homeland. This means, of course, getting the type of weapon systems and capabilities that will assume that in fact such a conflict is possible. The best way of avoiding such a conflict is actually defending against it.

Thank you very much. I look forward to the questions.