All Canadian observers on this point will immediately change their view when the war in Taiwan begins. When the war in Taiwan begins, we will see both the international ramifications and the Chinese military capabilities. Then we will do a re-evaluation, and people will say, just as we're doing with the second phase of the Russian-Ukrainian war, “Oh, I guess we should have seen this coming.”

Those such as David Mulroney and others, who are seeing it coming, have said for a long time that the threat is already here. We can talk about 20-year capabilities, but the real threat is not in terms of sovereignty. The Chinese are very careful not to publicly say anything that will undermine their sovereignty claims in terms of the South China Sea. In other words, what determines their public statements on Canadian Arctic sovereignty will be determined by what they think will help or detract from their ability on that.

The sovereignty issue they're going to avoid. The threat is security. The threat is whether the Chinese find themselves, through their actions in Taiwan, somehow involved in a military engagement with the Americans and our other Asian friends that then has spillover. Then, as Dr. Kimball so eloquently pointed out, do we find ourselves engaged in a situation in which we are sort of on the way over in terms of where these weapons are coming from?

There's a huge debate on whether the Chinese are planning to have their nuclear-powered cruise submarines come into Arctic waters. If they do—and I believe they are actively preparing for that—if the class 094s are given under-ice capabilities, it only makes sense for them to somehow figure out how to go through the very difficult Bering Strait. That's a huge problem. I acknowledge that. Coming through that, a cruise missile strike would then be made from the north to try to catch us off guard.

As Dr. Kimball points out, the time periods are very short, which means the problem is not 20 years away. They are doing the capability studies right now. They're getting those, and then it depends on when they decide to engage Taiwan.

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