Thank you, Mr. Chair and honourable members.

The Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development's reports on Canada's progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions show that, while real progress has been made in recent years, it won't be enough to achieve the legislated targets for 2030 and 2050.

Moreover, those analyses are consistent with the results of the technical-economic modelling presented in the third edition of our “Canadian Energy Outlook”. That report, published every three years, assesses the impact of existing measures in the context of a reference scenario and compares those results with the changes needed to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

The results of our work are as follows.

First, when you look at the clean electricity regulations and the zero-emission vehicle regulations, which are proposed but not yet adopted, our modelling shows that, for the first time, a reference scenario where greenhouse gas emissions are projected to decrease in Canada from 2005 is possible. In fact, instead of the 3% increase that was projected three years ago, we see a 14% reduction in emissions by 2030 from 2005, and a 25% reduction by 2040, again from 2005.

Nevertheless, when we observe the gap between our net-zero scenarios and the reference scenario for 2030, we come to the conclusion that it will, in fact, be impossible to achieve Canada's 2030 targets.

If we really want to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and make major changes, we must take longer-term measures now.

Another important aspect must be taken into account. Although federal efforts on zero-emission vehicle regulations overlap with those of the provinces, the bulk of structuring efforts for decarbonization come from the federal government. The provinces are making very little structural effort in this area. Given that energy is a provincial jurisdiction, it will be impossible for Canada to go much further unless the provinces make a real commitment.

Finally, we don't see how the industrial carbon market as it is currently set up could lead to significant emission reductions in the industrial sector. Other regulatory measures will be needed, among other things.

So our advice is similar to that of the Sustainable Development Commissioner.

In our view, one aspect isn't being addressed. Part of the problem that is slowing down implementation of the measures is a lack of cooperation from the provinces, as well as a lack of cooperation among the federal political parties. This forces the federal government to work much harder to develop regulations that will be court-proof, or that could survive changes in government. When we look at what's being done abroad, things work when all the political parties at least agree on the major objectives, which enables decarbonization to move forward.

One aspect that I feel is important and that I'd like to emphasize is that efforts have been made to improve modelling as a result of recommendations made by the Sustainable Development Commissioner in a previous report. Among other things, there's been collaboration among the federal Department of the Environment and the Energy Modelling Hub, an organization managed by the Institut de l'énergie Trottier at Montreal's École Polytechnique, the Institute for Integrated Energy Systems at the University of Victoria, and the School of Social Studies at the University of Calgary. So we are working to better understand the models and improve their quality. Things are moving in that direction.

If we want to speed up the transition, unless the provinces follow suit and commit to real cooperation, the federal government must really work on the environmental side, particularly by tightening important environmental standards. It must also develop sector-specific reduction strategies and a carbon budget, which can be defined in several ways. It can also support large-scale pilot projects to test transformative technologies in heavy transportation, carbon capture and sequestration, and other industrial processes. We think that's the only way we can move forward in this area.

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